BACKGROUND
The 4-component meningococcal serotype B vaccine (4CMenB) provides moderate cross-protection against Neisseria gonorrhoeae. However, the duration of protection when administered to adolescents is not well defined, and long-term data beyond 5 years are lacking.
AIM/METHODS
We identified an observational study from the South Australian 4CMenB programme reporting time-stratified vaccine effectiveness (VE) against gonorrhoea calculated using Cox regression models (Wang et al. 2025). To estimate waning of VE, we took the five VE estimates from Wang et al., using the upper limit of the time ranges given for the VE. We then fitted exponential waning models using nonlinear least-squares estimation, setting initial VE (at 0 months) at 50% or 60%.
RESULTS
Extrapolating from Wang et al., an exponential waning model with an initial VE of 50% produced VE estimates of 36.0% at 5 years, 30.6% at 7.5 years, and 25.9% at 10 years. An initial VE estimate of 60% yielded 33.2% at 5 years, 24.7% at 7.5 years, and 18.4% at 10 years.
CONCLUSIONS
There is predictive evidence of a protective effect of 4CMenB lasting at least 5 years and beyond, with the model predicting moderate VE for at least 10 years. These data inform the best use of 4CMenB in National Immunisation Programmes, including potential use of booster doses. These data also support 4CMenB protection against both invasive meningococcal disease and gonorrhoea over time, indicating the potential for broad population health benefits. Future research should validate the extrapolated VE, elucidate initial expected VE and correlates of protection and refine waning curves in diverse populations.
Funding: GSK.
ENCORE of ESPID | 1–5 June 2026 | Bologna.
Acknowledgements: Enovalife Medical Communication Service Center on behalf of GSK (Mary Greenacre provided medical writing support for the original abstract).
Conflict-of-interest: ATW, AA, ZK: employed by GSK. AA, ZK: financial equities in GSK. FA, TC, OH: Costello Medical received payment from GSK for conduct of the analysis. FM-T, HP-H: nothing to report.
Data sharing: Data sharing is not applicable to this abstract as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.